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DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/03 10:53
Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Flat-Higher
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
16 to 18 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
16 to 18 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is sharply lower with the S&P off 60. The U.S. Dollar Index is 25 points
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude .60
higher and natural gas .08 higher. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals
are weaker with gold 4.00 lower.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with flat spread action as
trade struggles to extend buying at the upper end of the recent range. Harvest
is moving forward and outside market pressure continues. Ethanol margins will
likely stay sideways in the short term with unleaded working to find a
supportive level for blending as winter blends get phased in. Basis should
continue to see short-term pressure as combines roll. USDA's weekly Crop
Progress report showed maturity at 82% versus 75% on average; 23% harvested
versus 21% on average; conditions unchanged at 53% good to excellent and 18%
poor to very poor. On the December chart the 20-day moving average at $4.81 1/4
is support again with the rebound Monday, with the Upper Bollinger Band at
$4.90 3/4 as further resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 16 to 18 cents lower at midday with trade scoring fresh
lows as meal continues to drag the product complex lower to keep selling in
play. Harvest is still pushing ahead and negative spillover from outside
markets continues. Meal is 5.50 to 6.50 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points lower.
The daily export wire showed 265,000 metric tons (mt) of soybeans sold to
China. Basis will fade with harvest picking up again with the river system
still declining in flows. Weekly crop progress showed 86% dropping leaves
versus 77% on average; 23% harvested versus 22% on average; conditions 2%
better to 52% good to excellent and poor to very poor at 17%. November chart
support is the fresh low at $12.56 3/4, with resistance the 20-day moving
average at $13.21.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are flat to a nickel higher at midday with Chicago leading
action again with firmer spread trade this morning as trade tries to
consolidate the rebound back from the lows despite the outside market pressure.
Matif wheat is firmer at midday with the dollar pressing to fresh highs. Plains
planting progress should move forward with warm and somewhat wet conditions for
some of the Plains with 40% planted versus 43% on average and 15% emerged
versus 16% on average. Australia continues to struggle. Little change in the
Black Sea situation is seen with bushels still moving out and planting just
underway as well. The daily export wire saw some action with China booking
220,000 mt of old crop SRW. On the KC December chart, the lower Bollinger Band
at $6.73 is resistance, which we remain just above at midday, with the fresh
low at $6.62 below that, and the 20-day moving average well above the market at
$7.17.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala
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