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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/20 10:49

   Corn Lower, Beans, Wheat Higher at Midday Monday

   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower; beans are 1 to 2 cents higher and wheat 
trade is 3 to 14 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker at midday with the S&P 500 30 points lower. 
The dollar index is 35 points lower. The interest rate products are firmer. 
Energies have crude 1.50 lower and natural gas .02 lower. Livestock trade is 
firmer. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $14.00.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with early short covering fading again as 
we remain oversold at fresh lows. Ethanol margins remain stable with unleaded 
phasing in spring blends, and cheaper natural gas helping to support margins 
along with corn at the low end of the range, but there are rumored changes to 
the Sustainable aviation fuel standards potential coming to limit uptake 
potential there, but it looks like year around E15 will be cleared for 2025. 
The daily wire saw 155,000 metric tons of new crop sold to Japan with weekly 
inspections solid at 918,610 metric tons. Basis has stayed steady as we head 
towards the end of the month and the farmer position is expected to weigh 
further. Early second-crop corn planting in Brazil is moving along at a good 
clip. On the March chart, the 20-day at $4.37 is nearby resistance with the 
Lower Bollinger Band at $4.14 just above the $4.14 3/4 fresh low as support.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade fading from the 
initial gap high as meal values lead the product complex and we hold Friday's 
strength. Meal is 3.50 to 4.50 higher and oil is 50 to 60 points lower as crude 
weakness weighs on soy oil. South American weather should continue to the 
recent pattern into mid-month with harvest moving along further with some 
concerns about drier short-term weather in Argentina short term. The daily wire 
saw 228,000 metric tons of meal sold to Philippines with weekly export 
inspections solid at 1.186 million metric tons. Basis should remain flat short 
term domestically. The March soybeans have resistance at the 20-day moving 
average at $11.98. The $11.62 fresh low is nearby support with the lower 
Bollinger Band just below that at 11.58.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 14 cents higher at midday with broader short covering as 
we reached oversold levels to end last week while the nearby inverses persist 
with solid spread action to start the week. The plains will see warmer than 
normal temps persist into March with better moisture possibilities the second 
week. The dollar remains elevated but off the highs with early weakness today 
with Matif wheat bouncing off the fresh lows scored yesterday. Weekly export 
inspections remained rangebound at 380,774 metric tons. On the KC March Chart, 
resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $6.12 which we are now well 
below. Support is the fresh low at $5.63 with the lower Bollinger Band just 
above that at $5.69.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala.

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